The transmission and spread of infectious disease such as Covid 19, HIV, Tuberculosis can be formulated using mathematical modelling.We develop the model base on the knowledge we have about the behavior and pattern of the disease, for example study shows that Covid 19 spread when an infected person touches a surface contaminated with droplet of the virus and also recent study suggest that the virus maybe airborne disease .We develop our model base on this knowledge we have about the disease and it transmission into 3 or more compartmental non-linear differential equations such SIR(Susceptible-Infected-Recovered), SIER(Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) and SEIVR(Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Vaccinated-Recovered).we solve the equation at equilibrium point which is the point at which the differential equations are equal to zero so that we can obtain the disease free and endemic equilibrium points.
One of the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology is the basic reproduction number, which is defined as the number of secondary infectious that one infected person can Infect others.We mostly use next generation matrix to obtain the value of the Reproduction number. Fromthe results we obtain we can then conclude that if the reproduction number is less than one then the disease can die out of the entire population. However if the basic reproduction number is greater than or equal to one we said that the disease persists in the population as the case of covid 19 in Nigeria and the world at larger right now.
In conclusion as the world continue to apply different measure in other to contain the spread of covid 19, l urge all the stakeholders involved in the fight against this deadly disease such as WHO, NCDC and the government of each country to collaborate with mathematician in developing a suitable model that can help in controlling the spread of the virus .As we await successful trials of the vaccination being developed all over the world l urge everyone to also adhere strictly to the measure put in place by the health and government organizations.
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