I don’t think China is gonna invade Myanmar. Geopolitics position of South east Asia forbids that. Myanmar and Vietnam have combined soldier counts over 1 million. China is surrounded by all enemies. Most China’s neighbors don’t like china. China has major problem in south china sea alone. If Burmese army could hold on like 6 months in jungle, China’s invasion is gonna collapse itself. Northern rebel groups in Myanmar appear to act in cahoots with Chinese government right now. But no groups want to live under Chinese rules. They knew it is going to be worse in China’s rules because they have to abandon nearly all their authority to Chinese government. So their act is just to leverage against Myanmar government. China is being a dick that don’t want to act as a good neighbor to Myanmar, like how china treats all her neighbors. An international naval blockage for 6 months in south china sea could collapse entire CCP as china needs to import nearly everything - energy, resources and food. So China will never invade any country for foreseeable future as they aren’t simple unable to as regional powers such India, Japan and Asian would never allow it to happen.
For the Myanmar’s army point of view, The longer the civil war is the better for them to hold on the power. The longer the civil wars, richer the army generals become. So Burmese army has no incentive to end the civil war. Rebel groups don’t want to end the war either. Rebel groups are mostly drug lords and resource thieves. So if the peace were achieved, their rules would be over. So the wars and battles happens in Burma everywhere but it is just the army and rebels group betraying the own country men while brainwashing the foot soldiers for daily sacrifices for their shit show civil wars so the army and rebel groups could share the power forever. Another problem is the army is highly unpopular in Myanmar. If you give any people in village enough weapon they will rebels in most case, given that the village is in suitable position for example near the borders. So army could never terminate any rebels. if the army eliminated one group, the power vacuum in their position would create 2 more tomorrow. Burmese army is weak but they have enough bite to hurt any invading troops.
Ability of China army for foreign invasion is questionable. China spends more on domestic police forces than military. China has major internal conflicts and problems(they have enough people to overthrow CCP in any given chance in china). China military learns 20 to 25 percent of their time to learn communist doctrine and Mao and Xi ideology, instead of training. Most army personnel never have contacted with real combats. China has no modern warfare experience. PLA has to swear loyalty to the party (CCP), not its mother land China. So leaders and generals of PLA are promoted based on their loyalty its connections in party,not by their ability. PLA chain of command is highly divided due to the mistrust of Party over army for staging the coup to seize power. China by all purposed unable to occupy Taiwan which they claim their province for like 60 years let alone any full fledged sovereign country. China invaded Vietnam because they are sure US won’t involved in it and Soviet Union couldn’t support meaningfully to Vietnam due to long distance.
If war is black and white, china and Burma alone, it is possible china gonna win. But in history China never conquered burma, not because China doesn’t want to, but because China is surrounded by enemies all sides all the time and geopolitics position of Burma made invasion nearly impossible.
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