1. Choice of VP.
Tinubu has to be very careful with the choice of VP that will fetch him the votes he needs. This can damage his ticket if the PDP opts for a Northerner. While this presents a better vote gathering capacity because the southwest isn't that religious sensitive, it will disunite a fractious nation. Tinubu's biggest problem is the choice of VP. The alternative is a Muslim Muslim ticket, which is likely not to fetch him enough votes in the South. Abiola did it with Kingibe, but Nigeria is now a different country. The cattle crisis and divisive social media would undermine the moral legitimacy of a Muslim Muslim ticket.
2. The age question.
Despite his record of progressivism, Tinubu represents the old order. Nobody knows exactly how old Tinubu is. The suspicion that he is many years older than his birth declaration claims is complicated by a visible frailness. But if Atiku is the favorite in the PDP then the age question will remain academic.
3. Tag of corruption and domineering godfatherism.
His opponents said he was corrupt, but even when they charged Ibori, Orji Kalu, Dariye & Co., they couldn't find anything to hang on Tinubu.
The fourth and perhaps the most crucial is Buhari. The body language so far is neutral. If Buhari endorses a candidate other than Tinubu then that's it. If Buhari is swayed by Tinubu's burgeoning momentum and backs him, then Tinubu is 80% done. If Tinubu fails to secure the president's nod he will lose the ticket of his party because he has no control of the party machinery. Fighting for the presidency through the PDP or a new party, with barely a year to go, it will be an impossible task.
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