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Why Tinubu May Not Become President as Over 60 Northern Groups Gang Up Against Power shift to South

Photo Credit: Bellanaija

Former Lagos State Governor has been away in the United Kingdom over the last couple of months on medical grounds. He is expected back in the country soon and his supporters have said as soon as he gets back he will kick-start his presidential campaign.

Analysts say Tinubu is in pole position to win All Progressives Congress Presidential ticket because the party may likely zone its presidency to the South.

However, while Tinubu may easily win APC's ticket, he faces great hurdles on his way to win the general election. This is because a coalition of over 60 Northern groups says it will not support any party that bars Northern candidates from its presidential ticket contest. In a recent report in Punch Newspaper, the groups' spokesperson Abdul-Azeez Suleiman described zoning as undemocratic. 

Photo Credit: Daily Trust

This article will analyse how such a remark poses a great impediment to Tinubu's political fortune in 2023.

The North is APC's stronghold, and Tinubu may not win the Presidency if he loses Northern support

For the APC to defeat the Peoples Democratic Party in both the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections, it needed massive support from the North and it got it. About two-thirds of the party's votes came from the North. So in essence, the North is an APC stronghold. So if the party loses Northern votes based on the threat by the Northern coalition, then it will become an almost impossible task for APC to win.

Photo Credit: Naija News

More so, PDP is strong in the South, especially South-South and South East. That means APC may not have an opportunity for losing Northern votes.

PDP may likely throw its presidential contest open and could also have a Northern presidential candidate

Another major reason why this may undermine Tinubu's fortunes in 2023 is that the opposition may likely throw its presidential contest open. This has been reported by several newspapers. This development might persuade the groups to endorse and mobilize Northern votes in favour of PDP. More so, this could prove a double tragedy for Tinubu because PDP may like to choose a Northern candidate as its presidential flagbearer.

Photo Credit: Vanguard

In essence, Tinubu has a lot of challenges facing his campaign and he will have to find a way to overcome them. Probably he will need to engage the Northern groups to assure them that he will protect the Northern interest as President. The ball is in Tinubu's court.

Do you think Tinubu should take these threats seriously or ignore them? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. While you are at it, also like and share the story so that others can comment too.

Note: All photos are for illustration purposes only. 

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APC Abdul-Azeez Suleiman Lagos State North Northern


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