This is not the first time it is making headlines that APC is considering adopting a consensus candidate. There have been such reports in the past. Well, there is a renewed move by the APC to use consensus arrangement. According to a report by The Punch, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu are set to meet over this issue. The allies and supporters of both politicians have made it known that they are likely to contest for President in 2023. This is because their allies have started mobilizing support for them across the country. It is expected that Tinubu and Osinbajo will reach an agreement when they meet over the issue. In that case, one of them may back the other for the post.
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Apart from Tinubu, other top aspirants for President under the APC are expected to meet and reach an agreement. This agreement will be guided by key party leaders. It is only when they reach this agreement and it is sealed in concrete terms, then the consensus candidate option may work out well.
Factors that will help to determine who will emerge the consensus
The first factor depends on the region (North or South) the APC zones the presidential ticket to. From indications, APC is likely to zone it to the South. This is because the North produced President Muhammadu Buhari who will complete his eight years in 2023. This is why all eyes are on Tinubu, Osinbajo and others that may declare bid for the post from the South. So, the candidate may emerge from the region APC zones it to.
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Another factor that can determine who will emerge the consensus candidate is the geopolitical zone the APC decides to pick the candidate from. In the South, the South West geopolitical zone is the major stronghold of the APC. Out of six states in the zone, APC controls five states. Moreover, it is the zone where most of APC's key national and influential leaders hail from. APC may choose to allow the consensus candidate to come from the South West. This is the zone where Tinubu and Osinbajo come from. Although, others from this zone and other zones may be eyeing the post of President, but they have not declared their interest and their loyalists have not started open mobilizations for them like supporters of Tinubu and Osinbajo are doing.
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Most importantly, the electoral value and political relevance of the aspirants will determine who will emerge the consensus candidate. These factors will help the APC to win the election if they give the person the ticket for President. How influential are all the aspirants intending to get the ticket? This includes their political influence in their LGAs, States, geopolitical zones, regions and in the country at large. In this regard, some of them may be politically relevant and influential.
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But, Tinubu and Osinbajo seem to have edge in this regard. The issue will be easier if Osinbajo and Tinubu who are long time political allies agree to work together. In that case, if one person agrees to back the other person, it means that their political camp may succeed in producing the consensus candidate for APC which may be Tinubu or Osinbajo. They have the network, the influence, the national recognition, the key allies and the financial muscles to fund the campaign. They are also also allies to President Buhari.
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