The past president, Mr. Goodluck Jonathan, may not be able to defeat two politicians if he contests again for the office of the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The former president could only struggle, but he would still lag behind if he contests again against any of the two politicians who are going to be described.
Mr. Jonathan lost the 2015 presidential election. He was the first incumbent president who would be defeated in a presidential election in the country at least since 1999. It was surprising that Muhammadu Buhari, who flew the APC flag, could be so strong to stun the former president in the highly competitive poll. Yet Buhari isn't the only politician who can defeat Jonathan.
If his political party, the PDP decides to field him again for the office of the president, it would be relatively impossible for Jonathan to stop Mr. Bola Tinubu. Jonathan isn't as strong as the former Lagos State governor, who is also the national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Tinubu's has built an hegemony in politics that Jonathan won't be able to demolish.
Jonathan may rely on the support of people from south-south and southeast, but they can't make him win the election. Tinubu on the other hand would expect the people of southwest and northwest to cast their votes for him. Even if Tinubu gets northwest alone, it is really enough for him to emerge as the Nigerian president.
Tinubu is much closer to the northern politicians these days, whereas Jonathan doesn't have that opportunity. The former Lagos State governor can actually look up to Mr. Umar Ganduje, Mr. Babagana Zulum, Senator Aliyu Wamakko, Senator Kashim Shettima among others for their support.
Whereas Mr. Babangida Aliyu recently broke some silence when he revealed that the northern governors worked against Jonathan in 2015. Though Mr. Jonah Jang came out to debunk the claim, there are still some iota of truth in the statement made by Babangida Aliyu. Hence, Tinubu could win northern region against Jonathan.
The All Progressives Congress may just decide to select its consensus candidate from northern region. It is really possible. There is nothing that can be discarded in politics most especially in Nigeria where political events and deals change almost immediately after they are made. There is one northern politician that Jonathan may not be able to defeat.
Mallam Nasir El-Rufai would rely on some factors which could enable him to defeat Jonathan. The Kaduna State governor would enjoy the backup of former president Olusegun Obasanjo. Yes, both Obasanjo and El-Rufai are very close. The Kaduna State governor was the minister of Federal Capital Territory while Obasanjo was in power at the federal level.
Secondly, El-Rufai is a great disciple of Muhammadu Buhari. The incumbent president would even be glad to hand over to a vibrant politician like the Kaduna State governor. Then, how can Jonathan defeat El-Rufai if both Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari support and campaign for Mallam Nasir El-Rufai?
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