As the race for 2023 general election draw closer, there have been different permutations from politicians in the different geo-political zones. Consultations are in top gear and the players are in high spirit, the audience are waiting to see who is going to be the game changer.
Ever since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999, there have been cries of marginalization by various tribes and tongues. To this end, political parties have tried to balance the equation through power rotation. Even as that, the rotational model does not seems to have solved the least of the incidences of marginalization.
The issue of marginalization has therefore remain a common factor in the determinant of who gets what and how.
In Nigeria, wherever the commander in chief of the federal republic of Nigeria emerge from determines how other appointments would be shared. For instance, in the structure of the current administration, the president is from the North West, the vice is from the South West, it is common sense that the secretary to the federation is from the North East. This current arrangement have been faulted by many especially when you consider the headship of the two other arms of government- the legislative and the judicial arm. The South- South and the South-East geo political zones seems to have been highly shortchanged in the current structure of governance. For instance, since the post of the secretary to the government of the federation has been allotted to North East, it is in the name of brotherliness or fairness that the South South or South East become either the president of the Senate or the speaker of the house. We need to also mention that, the judicial arm is also dominated by the Northern caliphate, not just that, the component of the judicial arm is also headed by those from the North. Ibrahim Tanko Muhammed is the chief justice and he is from Bauchi state, the North East. Justice John Terhemba Tsoho is the chief judge of the federal high Court and he is from Benue state, the North Central.
When you consider the above method of arrangement and style of resource sharing, you don't need to be a prophet as to why power may return to North especially in a country such as Nigeria where elections result is alledged to be manipulated.
The Northern part of the country has witnessed so much insecurity such that school children are been abducted and the girls been forced into marriages. Banditry, kidnapping, and terrorism is volatile in the North and it has recently spread into other parts of the county. Considering the fact that the North has higher voter strength, and in a time when they are searching for a Messiah who will rescue them from insecurity and insurgency, chances are that, they will want to consider there son first in the 2023 general election.
Insurgency in the North was a big factor in the determinant of the final outcome of the 2015 general election. The northern Nigeria people believed that if there son were to be president, he would shown more concern and resilience in the fight against terrorism and insurgency. In the end , this was not so. Terrorism and banditry is on the increase. would the North want to risk another moment of having there own as the president?
Since Nigeria have been classified into geo political zones, only three zones have had the opportunity to produce the president- the North West ( former president Musa Yar'adua and current president Muhammadu Buhari) the South South( president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan) the south west( president Olusegun Obasanjo).
Now, the other three geo political zones are agigatating for a turn to be the president. The agitation has gained more energy from north east and south east, leaving the North Central people with less agitation in the balance of the equation. If we put into consideration, the fact that the North East have been more affected by insurgency, and also, one of there own, Alhaji Atiku Abubarka was close to winning the last presidential election, an election some believed was rigged in favour of the current president, it will not be out of place to predict that Atiku Abubarka would run again and the northern people will vote en mass for him.
If by any chance, the running party(APC) Zoned it presidential slot to the South East for instance, and the opposition party , the people's Democratic party (PDP), picked a northerner as the party flag bearer, the south west are likely going to be the vice under the PDP arrangement, and a northerner would be the vice under the APC ticketing, in a situation as this, a northerner would no doubt have edge under this arrangement.
If we consider the fact that all the sensitive positions in the country, positions such as the Inspector general of police, INEC chairman, minister of Justice and attorney general, the minister of finance, EFCC chairman, Senate president, all of this positions are instrumental in the rigging or the successful conduct of elections in Nigeria, and in a case where one of there own, a northerner is running for president, resource at there disposal could have been well used ( as the case as been in the past)to favour there own. This allussion is traceable to what has happened in the past. In 2015 general election, a northerner was the INEC chairman, Attahiru Jega, that election lost credibility both in Nigeria and outside Nigeria. Jega was alledged to have manipulated results in favour of his brother, Buhari, who is from the North.
let us not forget what happened when Olusegun Obasabjo was the incumbent president, a southerner was at the time the INEC chairman,Maurice Iwu. Obasabjo contesting for a second in 2003. In that election, the Congress for progressive change, CPC, was the leading opposition party and Buhari was the flag bearer. In the end , the election went in favour of Obasanjo to the dissatisfaction of the Buhari camp and the North in general.
This is the situation the county of Nigeria has found herself. 2023 may still be a long journey, but activities and consultations are ongoing and all the geo political zones are already choosing a soft place to put there bet. I wish Nigeria good luck in the remaining days of 2021 and beyond.
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