The UEFA Champions League and Europa League are in their final stages with four English teams still in both competitions. Of the four English teams, two (Chelsea and Arsenal) still have the possibility of missing out on the top four placed with Arsenal not likely to make it. Manchester City and Manchester United are already certain to qualify for the UCL anyways by making top 4. So what happens if either or both of Chelsea and Arsenal win either or both of the competitions without making top 4?
Scenario 1: If either Chelsea or Arsenal win in Europe without the other winning
The first and most important thing to note is that a maximum of 5 teams from England can qualify for the UEFA Champions League. If Chelsea win the UCL without making top 4, then any of the other teams that finish top 4 can also join them as long as Arsenal do not win the Europa League. The same thing is applicable if Arsenal win the Europa League without Chelsea winning the UCL.
Scenario 2: If both teams win in Europe with but only one of them make top 4
If both Chelsea and Arsenal win their respective European competitions and only one of them make top 4, there will be no extra team outside the top 4 joining them. For example, if both teams win but only Chelsea make top 4, the other 3 teams in the top 4 qualify for the UCL alongside Chelsea and Arsenal.
Scenario 3: If both teams win in Europe with neither team making top 4
This is the scenario feared the most by the team that comes fourth in the EPL. As earlier said, a maximum of 5 teams can represent England in the UCL. If both teams win their respective competitions without making top 4, only the top 3 teams joins them in the UCL. The team that comes fourth in this case will drop to the Europa League. If West Ham, Liverpool or Tottenham were to finish fourth and both Chelsea and Arsenal win in Europe without making top 4, then they will be playing in the Europa League group stage next season despite making top 4.
After the UEFA Champions League spots are settled, the next team on the table that didn't make UCL qualification automatically qualifies for Europa League group stage in addition to the FA Cup winner. For example, if the teams that finish top 4 all qualify for the UCL, then the 5th placed team and FA Cup winner will qualify for the Europa League group stage. If the case of scenario 3 happens with the 4th placed team dropping to the Europa League group stage, it means the 5th placed team that would have normally qualified for the Europa League won't be playing in Europe unless they win any of the domestic cups. The EFL Cup winners also qualify for the Europa League play offs.
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